28 March 2011

Libya: Gadafi Regime Cracking Under Pressure Says Intel

WEST POINT, NY - DECEMBER 01: Secretary of St...Sec. Gates, left, Sec. Clinton, right - Image by Getty Images via @daylife
From Denny:  The intelligence community is reporting "the morale of Gadhafi forces is on the decline," according to one official. "Do ya think?" Your morale would be on the decline after witnessing coalition bombings taking out whole regiments of troops along with bombing cities. It's a lot different when the horror you once inflicted upon others becomes your own blood and guts horror.

Sounds like America's intelligence community so owes me a paycheck. :) They have finally come to the same conclusion as I have that The Gadafi Crowd can't handle the international heat and fear the massing crowds of Libyans who hate him.

The Middle East is a swirling cauldron of emotional opinion all the time. It is here that political dynamics rein supreme when it comes to perception of reality as opposed to the facts of any situation. What happens politically is elevated to the same level of importance as military battles.

Right now American officials are hoping a similar situation as what happened in Egypt will happen in Libya: his advisers will tell Gadafi it's time to go. In the past few days, there have been doubts rising among Gadafi's advisers. They are questioning whether Gadafi truly has any staying power any more.

What has contributed to their doubts are the recent successes of the rebels in re-taking five Gadafi held towns and the international will against keeping Gadafi in power. There are indications the morale of Gadafi troops is on the decline.

Increasingly, Gadafi advisers fear for themselves as their country once again faces international isolation and sanctions with the new twist of the No-Fly Zone and furious bombardments.

Because of the help from America and coalition partners the rebels appear to have advanced so successfully they created a ring around Gadafi forces, isolating them. That powerful image is politically damaging.

Though many Western analysts have written off the rebels to acquire the skills to advance much farther West into areas dominated by Gadafi forces and supporters, the political perception of the rebel success ringing Gadafi is working its psychological impact. Continued pressure does create a political problem for Gadafi, one of confidence.

When a leader loses the confidence of his people, he is doomed to be toppled from power.  Intelligence officials think the time is coming soon that the closest advisers to Gadafi will be informing him it is time to go from power.

This weekend on NBC's "Meet The Press," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, related there are those around Gadafi reaching out to resolve the impasse. They are saying, "You're misunderstanding us. You don't appreciate what we're doing. Come and talk to us." Read that as, "Help! We don't want to die with this idiot! Help us save ourselves - and our countrymen, by the way."

What message did America send back to the Gadafi advisers? I love this one. It's downright cheeky, sounding like something I might have written: "Do you really want to be a pariah? Do you really want to end up in the international criminal court? Now is your time to get out of this and to help change the direction." That was a good thrashing, Girl Clinton, in the tradition of Sec. of State Maddy Albright. There really is nothing better than a female Secretary of State, calling it like it is with a little icing on top to make it sweet.

Both American and NATO officials continue the message the military mission in Libya is to not intentionally remove Gadafi from power. Nor should we. That's the prize of the rebels and leave them to it. Besides, it's time America gave up this paternalistic Helicopter Parent attitude toward troubled countries. We don't need to go marching in with our military and do all their work for them. They will never fully own it or grow to the challenges ahead of them when they structure a new government.

And in the usual understatement of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, an upstanding good guy in a tough situation, says it all: "One should not underestimate the possibility of the regime itself cracking." And that's all she wrote.









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